Jim Reber
Articles by Jim Reber
Yield enhancer, or gimmick?
Most representatives of the broker-dealer industry have been suggesting to their customers, especially community banks, that their collection of bonds could be situated to perform pretty well in 2025. You can be forgiven for rolling your eyes if you’ve heard this.
A fresh perspective: FOMC’s 2025 roster has some new voters
While we in the financial services sector start thinking about monetary policy in the coming year, there’s a new wrinkle to consider. Many Fed-watchers, rate prognosticators, economists and even investors had been betting on substantially lower rates in 2025 for many months.
Easing into the fall
It’s been a while, but the tightening cycle that started in early 2022 has finally run its course. It appears the price stability mandate has been met sufficiently for the focus to turn to maximum employment. The rate cut in September marks the first time in four and a half years that the target rate of fed funds has dropped.
The Meek…
The importance of artificial intelligence (AI) literacy cannot be overlooked as AI is rapidly transforming the banking industry. As this technology evolves, so do the risks and opportunities.
Play ball! National pastime gives us some portfolio management guidance.
It occurs to me that with a little thought there may be some parallels between our national pastime and community banking. Follow along as we see what lessons we might glean from the grand old game. And don’t buy what Yogi Berra asked: “Who can think and play baseball at the same time?”
Recession proofing: How to benefit from a lull in the economy
Tell me if you’ve heard this: An inverted yield curve is highly correlated with a subsequent recession. And might I point out that the U. S. treasury curve has been upside down for pushing two years now?
Making a list, checking it twice
Since we started seeing Halloween decorations in August, I felt it was high time we started thinking about the Holiday season. More specifically, as it relates to community banking. And still more specifically, about a checklist for the balance sheet. There are some seasonal items that bear attention prior to, and immediately after, year end. So let’s take a look at what may be on the radar for the fourth quarter.
Spread the wealth
As we have navigated the holiday season, and hopefully had some time to wrap up some gifts as well as a successful 2023, let’s now spend a few minutes looking into pockets of relative value in the bond market.
Time out for trivia: Qs and As to enlighten portfolio management
Hang with me as I pose a series of my own questions relating to community banks, which I hope you will view as more helpful than trivial. Even better: Your author supplies the answers.
Remember the munis
I’m speaking of the municipal bond market. It is a maxim of community banking that the more munis a bank owns, the higher performing the portfolio will be.
Value, added: High baseline yields accompany surprisingly wide spreads
If your responsibilities include your community bank’s bond portfolio, you’ve been confounded by several elements of its performance in the last 18 months.
Buyers of U.S. debt come in many shapes and sizes.
I think we can all agree that there has been plenty to be concerned about in the last, say, five years. Some are environmental issues, some are social and, for community bankers, plenty are economic.
Current bond yields have long-term appeal
The FOMC’s execution of monetary policy according to its dual mandate often results in wild swings in interest rates—and the resultant volatility in bond prices. The historic 2022 (and ongoing) hike in interest rates, while painful for bondholders, has at least produced a yield environment that is worthy of an investment column.
Fourth quarter rally: Some suggestions on how to wrap up 2022
The word "rally" can be used for a number of purposes and in different contexts. For instance, it could mean a long-distance auto race over varying surfaces and involving stages and checkpoints.
Price pullback prospects: Availability of discount bonds causes a rethink of strategies.
Community banking is a cyclical industry, and its earnings have some correlation to market interest rates. Discounts are the story of the day, so let’s review how discount-priced bonds can be used strategically to improve portfolio performance.
Up with Coupons: Larger interest payments can build a floor under your bond prices
Up with People, which readers of a certain age may remember, was an organization that had a run of popularity in the 1970s and ‘80s by promoting wholesome values and positive thinking. Its delivery channel was through song and dance performances, often in large arenas and stadiums.
The Great Escape: The bond market braces for the Fed’s wind-down of its balance sheet.
If bond investors (you) were running low on things to worry about for the rest of the year, I’ve got some terrific news: The $9 trillion portfolio owned by our central bank will begin to shrink. Soon. And at a feverish pace, I might add.
Rising tide: Bonds to own for a rate hike environment
Community bankers are nothing if not predictable, and I mean that as a compliment. They are bright, enterprising, have a nose for the risk/reward dynamic and a sense of duty and loyalty to their customers and staff. They’re also deathly afraid of rising interest rates.
Treasuries for the win! Low yield spreads send community banks back to the basics
I’ll let you in on a secret: sometimes your columnist runs out of new ideas to cover. A dearth of new products, no new regs, a stable rate environment—all of these can cause a writer to run aground while sailing the financial seas in search of material.
Jim Reber: What’s next for investments
Looking to make changes to your investments this year? Bond opportunities abound in 2021.
Community Bank Portfolio Management: 2026 Shop Talk Strategy
Our conversation with a consummate community banker concludes.
Fed Policy Outlook 2026: FOMC Changes & Rates
The Federal Reserve’s 2026 FOMC roster changes could reshape interest rate policy. Here’s what new leadership, voting shifts and market expectations mean for rate cuts, the yield curve and community banks.
Ladder vs. Barbell: Portfolio Management Tips
Learn how community banks can leverage barbell strategies to balance risk, improve yields and manage bond portfolios effectively.
Lies and Statistics
Community bank bond portfolios have latent strengths.
On your marks
In just a few short weeks, the fixed-income market’s expectations for monetary policy have done a virtual about-face. This is not to say that investors are fickle. Some of this change in sentiment is data driven; some is Trump administration officials’ cajoling; and some is Federal Reserve Board chairman Jay Powell’s comments in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 22. Regardless, market indicators have shifted from zero or one rate cuts for the rest of 2025, to as many as four.
Whole lotta thinkin’ going on
I hope the readers of this column will excuse the lack of decorum in the title, but in reading and listening to the words of the Federal Reserve Board’s members over the past month, I hear a lot of hedging. And far be it from me to second guess the respective governors and regional presidents of our central bank.
Jim Reber: Manage Interest Rate Risk With Strategic Portfolio Decisions
Yield curve shape reflects bond market’s mood.
Jim Reber: Whole lotta thinkin’ going on
I hope the readers of this column will excuse the lack of decorum in the title, but in reading and listening to the words of the Federal Reserve Board’s members over the past month, I hear a lot of hedging.
Vigilante justice?
While it will possibly take months and even the rest of the year to see the full shakeout, April 2025 was a laboratory for market efficiency. Some might contend there was an element of ruthlessness in the activity. Starting even before the Trump administration’s trade policy tariffs went into effect on April 2, the “Bond Vigilantes,” a nebulous gang of institutional debt investors, started shooting up the place.
Concepts and facts - ChatGPT gets it mostly right on yield curve shapes
The Treasury yield curve is a critical financial indicator that depicts the relationship between interest rates and the maturity dates of U.S. government debt. Typically, the yield curve slopes upward, reflecting higher yields for long-term securities compared to short-term ones.
Yield enhancer, or gimmick? Callable securities present risk and reward.
Most representatives of the broker-dealer industry have been suggesting to their customers, especially community banks, that their collection of bonds could be situated to perform pretty well in 2025.
A fresh perspective: FOMC’s 2025 roster has some new voters
While we in the financial services sector start thinking about monetary policy in the coming year, there’s a new wrinkle to consider. Many Fed-watchers, rate prognosticators, economists and even investors had been betting on substantially lower rates in 2025 for many months.
Jim Reber: Will the Wave Return?
Falling rates should boost cash flows.
Jim Reber: Rolling With the Curve
An upward slope can bolster market values.
Jim Reber: Pushing the Boundaries
Cost of funds is putting pressure on bond portfolio’s net margins.
Jim Reber: Returns, in Total
A wide range of market prices requires analysis.
Jim Reber: Price stability or yield? Here's both
Cash-management instruments have relative value today.
Jim Reber: Positive/negative charges
Net-of-inflation returns provide a battery of observations.
Jim Reber: Shop talk 2021
Here’s another conversation with our consummate community banker.
Jim Reber: Jonathan Swift on Community Banking
Through the lens of Jonathan Swift’s sharp observations, Jim Reber examines enduring truths about community banking—balancing risk and reward, managing portfolios, and navigating uncertainty with sound judgment.
On your marks
September 17 will possibly be a watershed day for Fed-watchers. Not only did we see the Federal Open Market Committee resume its rate cutting that’s been on hold since last December, we also got an update to its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Jim Reber: The Rule of Three
Bond portfolio yields are at multiyear highs.
On your marks
In just a few short weeks, the fixed-income market’s expectations for monetary policy have done a virtual about-face. This is not to say that investors are fickle. Some of this change in sentiment is data driven; some is Trump administration officials’ cajoling; and some is Federal Reserve Board chairman Jay Powell’s comments in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 22. Regardless, market indicators have shifted from zero or one rate cuts for the rest of 2025, to as many as four.
Jim Reber: Spreading the Good News
Incremental yield can indicate relative value.
Jim Reber: The Fed Loosens Up
A slowdown in quantitative tightening has an element of policy easing.
Jim Reber: Shop Talk 2024
Another conversation with our consummate community banker, Charlie Brown.
Jim Reber: The Big Chill
Might the bond market be range-bound in 2024?
Jim Reber: Time to lock in?
SBICs can hit the sweet spot on the yield curve.
Jim Reber: Shop talk 2023
To start the year, let's listen in on a conversation with our consummate community banker.
Jim Reber: Three chords and the truth
Country music evokes portfolio management themes.
Jim Reber: What we hoped for?
Community bankers wished for higher rates in 2022. And now…
Jim Reber: Swap meet
A guide for taking advantage of 2022.
Jim Reber: Supply chain histrionics
To start the year, here are my thoughts on the municipal bond market.
Jim Reber: Tighten up
Agency spreads continue to grind lower.
Jim Reber: The big "if"
General market munis have gained favor among community bankers.